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2026 FIFA World Cup | Data Analysis - Betting Platform · Attack/Defense·xG·H2H·Models

Data Analysis · Quantifying True Team Strength

Deep data insights for the semi-finals based on xG, advanced metrics, H2H, and Poisson models. Rational reference for betting decisions.

📊 Data as of 2026.7.15 | Semi-Final Day simulated data
📊 Attack/Defense Comparison · Semi-Final Teams

🇫🇷 France vs Argentina 🇦🇷

Shots per gameFrance 15.7 / Argentina 16.5
Shots on targetFrance 5.9 / Argentina 6.1
Tackles/InterceptionsFrance 18.4 / Argentina 16.7
⚡ France defensive solidity superior; Argentina creates slightly more chances but efficiency needs improvement.

🇧🇷 Brazil vs Portugal 🇵🇹

Shots per gameBrazil 18.2 / Portugal 14.9
Shots on targetBrazil 6.8 / Portugal 5.4
Tackles/InterceptionsBrazil 17.5 / Portugal 17.1
🔥 Brazil leads in attacking stats, but Portugal's counter-attack efficiency cannot be ignored.
🎯 Goal Distribution · Time Periods & Methods

🇫🇷 France Goal Distribution

0-30 min18%
31-60 min35%
61-90 min47%
⏰ France significantly stronger in second half; knockout stage late goals high proportion.

🇦🇷 Argentina Goal Distribution

0-30 min22%
31-60 min38%
61-90 min40%
⏰ Argentina enters scoring rhythm relatively earlier in the first half.

🇧🇷 Brazil Goal Method

Open Play74%Set Pieces26%
⚽ Brazil strong in open play creation, lower reliance on set pieces.

🇵🇹 Portugal Goal Method

Open Play68%Set Pieces32%
⚽ Portugal set-piece goals account for 32% — corners worth watching in the semi-final.
📈 xG Expected Goals · Chance Quality Quantified

🇫🇷 France vs Argentina 🇦🇷

France xG1.94Actual Goals2.1
Argentina xG2.05Actual Goals2.0
📊 France's finishing slightly above expectation; Argentina actual goals below xG — possible regression.

🇧🇷 Brazil vs Portugal 🇵🇹

Brazil xG2.28Actual Goals2.4
Portugal xG1.89Actual Goals1.9
🔥 Brazil elite chance creation; Portugal xG lower but counter shot accuracy 43%.
💡 xG differential: France -0.11, Argentina +0.05; Brazil +0.12, Portugal -0.01.
🔄 Head-to-Head · Last 5 Meetings

🇫🇷 France vs Argentina 🇦🇷

2022 World CupFrance 3-3 Argentina (90')Draw
2018 World CupFrance 4-3 ArgentinaFrance win
FriendlyFrance 2-0 ArgentinaFrance win
2009 FriendlyFrance 0-2 ArgentinaArgentina win
📌 Last 3 competitive matches: France 2 wins, 1 draw — psychological edge.

🇧🇷 Brazil vs Portugal 🇵🇹

2022 FriendlyBrazil 1-1 PortugalDraw
2018 FriendlyBrazil 0-0 PortugalDraw
2010 World CupBrazil 0-0 PortugalDraw
2008 FriendlyBrazil 2-0 PortugalBrazil win
📌 Recent meetings full of draws; last 3 encounters all draws — draw risk high.
🧠 Probability Models · Poisson Distribution 1X2

🇫🇷 France vs Argentina 🇦🇷

Home Win38%Draw32%Away Win30%
🎲 After Poisson correction: France unbeaten 68%, draw 32%. Combined with draw odds drop, draw worth coverage.

🇧🇷 Brazil vs Portugal 🇵🇹

Home Win46%Draw28%Away Win26%
🎲 Brazil win% slightly below market popularity; draw+away combined 54% — Portugal unbeaten value.
📐 Advanced: Over/Under probability — France/Argentina Under 2.5: 61%; Brazil/Portugal Under 2.5: 63%

📌 Data Insights Summary

  • ✅ France defensive numbers better than Argentina, but Argentina creates higher xG — efficiency question mark.
  • ✅ Brazil attacking advantage clear, but historical H2H shows frequent draws — draw probability not negligible.
  • ✅ Goal timing: France 47% goals in second half — late goals likely in knockout stage.
  • ✅ Probability model points to: France unbeaten + Brazil/Portugal Under combination offering strategic value.
🧠 Data is an anchor for decisions, but football is full of surprises. Use rationally, enjoy the World Cup.